VST Data Reasoning Activity
Correlation Does Not Equal Causation
Examine each graph, describe the evidence, and decide what the evidence actually allows you to claim.
Reasoning is where you make the case. Ask what else could explain the pattern, whether the cause could run the other way, and how the data were collected.
CorrelationTwo variables show a pattern or change together.
CausationChanging one variable actually produces a change in the other.
Intro
Wrap Up
What makes a causal claim stronger?
Before concluding that one variable caused another, look for a controlled change, a repeatable pattern, a mechanism that explains how the cause could produce the effect, and evidence that alternative explanations have been addressed.
A shared causeSomething else may be changing both variables.
Reverse directionThe relationship may be real while the cause runs the other way.
Time trendTwo unrelated quantities can rise during the same years.
Too little evidenceA small sample or natural variation can imitate a pattern.
Exit